A current overview of changing Israeli fighting doctrine in Gaza

20 April 2024

By: David Brock Katz

Overtaking the headlines on 8 April, which stated that Israel had pulled all its ground troops out of southern Gaza for “tactical reasons”, was the report of a massive Iranian strike of over 300 drones and missiles directed at Israel from Iranian territory. Iran’s “retaliatory” bombardment signified a significant strategic departure for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Instead of using its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah or the Houthis, Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time in its history. In a similar fashion to the world’s initial reaction to 8 October, the attack garnered immediate condemnation from many quarters, thereby buying Israel a short respite from the constant media attacks surrounding the conduct of its war in Gaza. Despite Iran’s deadly intent, the missile attack leaves a massive credibility gap in the Iranian capability to inflict harm on Israel via the air. All but a few of the 300 missiles were either shot down or crashed on their own accord, inflicting minimal damage. Israel can claim a massive victory for its Iron Dome system and celebrate the fact that the Jordanians and Saudi Arabians accounted for several of the Iranian missile losses. However, it seems that the USA has again restricted any Israeli counterattack, which squanders a rare opportunity to neutralise some Iranian military assets. 

Quite simply, Biden and his administration have put the brakes on Israeli military actions. Israel has lost the ability to deploy its military at the operational and strategic level of war without the USA’s permission. Losing this independence of action poses a significant problem for Israel’s successful execution of the war in Gaza. The Israeli Defence Force (IDF) in Gaza deployed 18 brigades in December 2023 (about 90,000 troops) and then trimmed down to 5 brigades at the end of March. The IDF now fields a single brigade in Gaza, leaving Khan Younis and Gaza City unoccupied. Undoubtedly, the decision behind the IDF’s hasty withdrawal is not for any sound military reason. Instead, the IDF has succumbed to European and belated pressure from the USA to drastically change its tactics as world opinion has turned decidedly against the Israelis. The original IDF plan of occupying Gaza in its entirety and eliminating Hamas as a military and political force lies in tatters. 

Initially, Israel adopted a persisting strategy, placing a large number of boots on the ground, deliberately advancing at a slow, careful pace into the heart of Gaza. The IDF skilfully concentrated its forces using combined arms teams down to the lowest tactical level. They carefully accumulated overwhelming firepower at the focal points, sometimes only advancing mere meters in a given day. With great tactical skill and impeccable doctrine, the IDF produced innovative tactics to overcome most of the attacker’s disadvantages in dense urban areas. The Urban environment overwhelmingly favours Hamas. New IDF tactics are under tight wraps, but Israel’s allies are watching closely and will undoubtedly incorporate these combat innovations into their urban warfare doctrine. At least up to December, the Israelis made slow but significant progress in defeating Hamas in the field as well as destroying vast tracts of the tunnel system. The IDF badly mauled Hamas at a relatively low casualty cost, inflicting an estimated 30-50% loss on its fighting power before forcing them to withdraw to Rafah to conduct what would have been their last stand before destruction.  

Despite registering significant gains at the tactical and operational levels, Israel IS steadily losing the propaganda war. The world’s outrage at the atrocities committed by Hamas on 7 October began to recede almost immediately. If Israel ever had a chance to strike using a persisting strategy (occupy territory and boots on the ground), it would have had to execute with lightning speed. A cautious approach led to it being caught offside by the capricious support it had initially garnered on 7 October. Israel chose to minimise IDF and civilian casualties, and the sands of time have run out. The media’s constant barrage of civilian casualty figures, as reported by Hamas, has alienated many of Israel’s USA and European backers. The breathtaking hypocrisy of mainstream media has drowned out lone voices of reason, such as Douglas Murray. A discredited Norman Finkelstein, sidelined even by the Palestinians and now comparing Gaza to a concentration camp, has found new vigour and appreciative audiences. Rochdale in the United Kingdom has elected George Galloway, long consigned to the looney left fringes, as Member of Parliament on a pro-Hamas and virulently anti-Israel ticket. Friends, it would seem, are few.  

Israel has to contend with an increasingly frayed relationship with the USA. Support among younger Americans for Israel is rapidly fading. President Biden has insinuated that if the Israelis do not curtail operations in Gaza, then the supply of American arms will come under threat. There are lessons to be learned by those desirous of conducting an independent foreign policy free from American influence. A homegrown defence industry that supplies the lion’s share of one’s military needs is a fundamental prerequisite. Surely, Israel regrets abandoning the Israeli Airforce Industries Lavi Jet Fighter program in favour of the USA’s F-16? The USA no doubt had a significant role in eliminating the Lavi as a possible competitor in the lucrative arms trade industry. Israel cannot independently conduct its operations in Gaza without the USA’s implicit or explicit approval. That is the price of dependence on the USA for the supply of essential arms and munitions. Ukraine faces a similar dilemma of relying on the West to supply essential military equipment for survival. When the time comes, Ukraine will have little choice but to comply with the West’s version of a peace settlement. Israel has withdrawn from the south of Gaza and significantly reduced its troop numbers there, not of its own choice, but on instruction from the USA. 

So where to from here? The IDF has abandoned a highly successful persisting strategy, where it placed boots on the ground, occupied territory, and advanced methodically and innovatively by using combined arms warfare to eliminate Hamas’s fighting power in the north of Gaza. The military endgame was in sight. All that remained was to capture Rafah and remove Hamas in its entirety. Israel, succumbing to American pressure, now has no option but to resort to a raiding strategy. The IDF will attempt to remove Hamas targets through precision ground and air strikes surgically. The danger of this strategy can already be seen, with close to 2,000 Hamas fighters infiltrating their way back into Gaza City in the absence of Israeli ground forces. History has shown that wars cannot be won using a raiding strategy exclusively. Targeting Iranian, Hezbollah and Hamas operatives outside of Gaza to weaken the terrorist superstructure is also not a strategy which will eliminate Hamas. The hope of a more friendly future US government is uncertain and, at best, many months away. The release of hostages, if any are alive, seems remote. An emboldened Hamas continued to hold out for the best terms for a ceasefire. The Israeli retaliation for the Iranian attack was a very measured and even-handed response and an extensive counter-attack currently remains off the cards. Israel faces tough months ahead.

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By Dr. David Katz